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Hi, i'm Chris the creator of Green_Up Insightful Sports Trading and i hope you enjoy my blog. I'm an enthusiastic sports analyst specialising in tennis and football, part-time trader and Tennis mad amongst other things! The idea of my Blog is to post pre event advice, thoughts and ideas, stats, strategies and results updates etc. I will also Tweet during sporting events and be providing in-play insight and advice. I'm on a journey trying to develop my sports trading and betting skills and i enjoy sharing advice and thoughts with like minded enthusiasts. I hope you enjoy the Blog and i look forward to hopefully interacting with you sometime in the future.

Sunday, 15 April 2012

Monte Carlo Masters Series - Live on Sky Sports & Betfair Live Video

The first Masters Series clay court event of the season gets underway Monday morning and Rafael Nadal will aim to win a historical eighth title in as many years. While the defending champion comes here with concerns regarding his knees again after retiring at Miami recently, it was a similar situation this time last year. His retirment was most likley a precautionary measure to insure he was fit and ready for this week and the remainder of the clay court season.

In terms of the tournament winner its hard to look past a Nadal and Djokovic final as these two players have dominated the majority of the major tournaments over the last 12 months, and with Federer not taking part this week another final between the two looks likley.

In terms of the winner i think Djokovic will continue his dominance over Nadal and the majority of the major tournaments going, as he almost looked back to his imperious best at Miami last month. He has a tough draw with Ferrer and possibly Murray lying in wait, but a repeat of his Miami and best surface form should see him go close to lifting his first Monte Carlo title.

Lukas Kubot vs. Jurgen Melzer - 9.30am
Lay Melzer at 1.43 - Back at price for equal profit if loses 1st set (LOST -0.5)
Stop loss back at 1.22

I don't think Melzer has done anything outdoors this year to suggest he is worth backing at such restrictive odds. He did reach the semi-finals here last year, but his form tailed of badly after that and apart from doing well indoors this year he has not looked solid outdoors. He has a losing record on clay over his last 10 matches and if Kubot can frustrate Melzer we may see one of his famous mental meltdowns.

Kubot is capable of causing an upset as he is an awkward player to face with his net rushing tactics and is solid on serve. He has a winning record on clay over his last ten matches, recorded some good wins against higher ranked players last year and has played well on clay against left handers in the past.

Young vs. Mathieu - 9.30am
Lay Mathieu at 1.39 - Back for equal profit if loses 1st set (LOST -0.5)
Stop loss - Back at 1.19

I'm not convinced that Mathieu should be priced at such restrictive odds as in my opinion his form has not been that impressive since making his comeback from a long injury lay off this year.

Young has not been at his best this year either, but he did push an in-form Benoit Paire, who is a similar player to Mathieu, close at Casablanca on clay last week. Young has a good record as an underdog and if he's up for this match and knuckles down he's capable of pushing Mathieu close or even causing an upset.

Tomic vs. Istomin - 10.45
Back Istomin at 2.0 (LOST -1)
Stop loss - Back at 1.5 (not if loses 1st set)

Clay is far from Tomics' best surface and his results confirm this losing 9 of his last 10 matches. His form this year has not been that impressive and he will really have his work cut out to beat an experienced in-form player like Istomin today.

Clay is not Istomins' strongest surface either, but he has far better record, is more experienced and played well against semi-finalist Andreev at Casablanca last week winning the first set. He ran out of steam in that match as he played Davis Cup at the in Uzbekistan and travelled straight to Casablanca on the Sunday to play on the Monday.
In Play Advice

Raonic vs Montanes (WON 0.5)

Advised that Raonic at 2.3 would come back in 2nd set when a set down vs Montanes. He went on to break and win 2nd set when hedge and profit was avaialble to take.

 Arsenal vs Wigan (LOST -0.5)

Advised laying O4.5 goals in play second half around 53mins and trading out at 70mins, which won as no goal.

Advised laying CS at 80mins, which lost as no goal.

Good luck!

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