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Hi, i'm Chris the creator of Green_Up Insightful Sports Trading and i hope you enjoy my blog. I'm an enthusiastic sports analyst specialising in tennis and football, part-time trader and Tennis mad amongst other things! The idea of my Blog is to post pre event advice, thoughts and ideas, stats, strategies and results updates etc. I will also Tweet during sporting events and be providing in-play insight and advice. I'm on a journey trying to develop my sports trading and betting skills and i enjoy sharing advice and thoughts with like minded enthusiasts. I hope you enjoy the Blog and i look forward to hopefully interacting with you sometime in the future.

Sunday, 22 April 2012

A good day on the football yesterday and let’s see if we can keep that going today.

Footbal Update 

Valencia vs. Real Betis - 8.30pm
Lay Valencia at 1.63 - Back if concede first or at 3.2 for equal profit (whichever comes first) (LOST -0.6)
Stop loss - Back at price if score 1st

Valencia are out of form at present and won 4 of their last 10 homes games.
Valencia won 1 of their last 4 home games vs. bottom half sides.
Like last week Valencia may have one eye on the Europa League return fixture vs Atl. Madrid next week.

Betis not strong away from home season, but they have beaten top-6 sides Atletico Madrid and Malaga away this season and are unbeaten in their last 2 league away games.
They also beat Valencia in this seasons reverse fixture 2-1.

Hannover vs Frieburg - 4.30pm
Lay 0-0 HT after 10mins at price if 0-0 (LOST -1.5)

There has been a 1st half goal in the last two corresponding fixtures

There has been a 1st half goal in 70% of Hannovers last 10 home games
There has been a 1st half goal on 70% of Hannovers last 10 homes games vs. bottom half sides

There has been a 1st half goal in 90% of Frieburgs last 10 away games
There has been a 1st half goal in 90% of Frieburgs last 10 away games vs top half sides.

Not getting much luck with the Lay 0-0 HT's at present even though stats usually work out well for these.

Premiership 22nd

Manchester United vs. Everton - 12.30pm Live on Sky Sports

Lay Over 1.5 goals at 1.28 - Back at 40 mins or at 1.78 for equal profit if 0-0 (whichever comes 1st) (LOST -0.5)
Stop loss - Back at 1.14

Lay O2.5 goals at 1.82 - Back for equal profit at 40 mins or 3.6 if 0-0 (whichever comes first)  (LOST -0.64)
Stop loss - Back at 1.41 (not if goal scored 1st half)

Last season’s corresponding fixture ended 0-0 at half time and 1-0 at full time.

The average time of both teams’ goals scored and conceded home/away is over 50 mins and against similar opposition the average is over 40mins. 

Also in Manchester United's last 5 home games vs. top-half sides there has only been 1 goal scored before half time

Close with this match and there was a good trading opportunity if you chose to exit before 1st goal at 33mins as O1.5 traded high of 1.65 and O2.5 2.9, but unfortunately 2 quick goals in space of 5mins cost us chance of a profit.

Liverpool vs. West Brom - 4.00pm
Lay Liverpool at 1.45 - Back if concede first or at 2.9 for equal profit (whichever comes first) (WON +2.24 full profit as late goal and no need to trade out)
Stop loss - back at price if score first

Liverpool have won 1 of their last 4 home games vs. bottom half opposition this season and 4 of their last 10.

West Brom have lost 3 of their last 10 away games vs. middle third sides and the 3 losses came against Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton who are currently placed 7th or higher in the league.

I may also have further football advice for the tea time kick offs depending on how the above advice goes.


Monte Carlo Masters Final - 1pm

Djokovic vs. Nadal

Nadal is the favourite to win the match and going for a record breaking 8th straight title. His record against Djokovic and in Finals since the beginning of 2011 is not good however; as Djokovic has won all of the finals they played since then, including two on clay at Rome and Madrid last year.

Given this Djokovic represents value at over 2.2 and i will be looking to trade him in running if he is keeping the match close and competing well.

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