Green_Up

Tennis

Not a significant amount of quality matches on today with qualifying for three events still to be completed and a handful of first round matches. 

Also the Barcelona draw was thrown in to disseray yesterday with the withdrawl of Berdych and Chela so a lot of scheduled matches had to be changed and main draw places given to lucky losers.

Match bets/trades 

WTA Fes International

Babos vs Begu - 3pm

Back Begu at 1.6 (WON +0.6)

Brianti vs Cadantu - 3pm

Back Brianti at 1.82 (LOST -1 Profit possible at 7-5 4-2 when Briannti traded at 1.13)


Brianti somehow managed to throw this match away from a set and break up, but it was a poor match from both players throughout as neither could hold serve for the majority of the 1st and 2nd sets.  Brianti must be really dissapointed to lose in this manner as she was the defending champion.
 

ATP Tournament Previews

Barcelona ATP 500

There is not much value in terms of the outright winner market with Nadal defending his title. Ferrer and Murray are in the opposite sides of the draw, but even if either makes the final there SP will not shorten too much based on Nadal's form last week and hence there is little point in trading either player. 

I feel the only trading/EW opportunities for this market are trying to find a higher priced player whose price will shorten if they reach the semi-finals/final from the bottom half of the draw. Aggressive big serving/serve and volley style players have done well here in the past due to the quicker conditions. There are a handful of players who have played well at Barcelona in the past, fit the profile and could make the semis/final if Ferrer and Murray don't play at their best again like last week.

Feliciano Lopez looks to have a good chance of reaching the quarter finals where he could face Ferrer. He has beaten Ferrer a few times in the past on quicker surfaces, but not on clay. Ferrer looked out of sorts last week losing too left hander Belluci and while he will no doubt be in much better shape if he meets Lopez in the quarter finals this week, it could be a close match due to the quicker conditions and if Lopez is playing well by this stage. 

At odds of around 90.0 there should be an opportunity to trade a profit on Lopez if he makes the quarter finals.

Nicolas Alamagro and Robin Haase are both good clay courters, in particular Almagro, and both like to play aggressive tennis. Haase made his first Masters Series quarter final at Monte Carlo last week and is drawn to face Murray in the third round. On form he is capable of beating Murray, who did not play well last week, but this was his first tournament on clay this year and i imagine he will improve.

Haase is very tempting at odds of 200/1 with VictorBet but I don’t think he is good enough to beat players like Murray, Almagro, Ferrer and Lopez back to back after a tough tournament last week so I cannot not back him as a result.

Almagro has played well here in the past reaching the semi-finals twice and has beaten Murray on clay before. He has a great chance of reaching the quarter finals where he could face Murray or possibly Haase.

At his best Almagro is capable of Murray and Haase on clay and if he reaches the quarter finals his odds should shorten from over 20.0, which will present a decent trading opportunity.

Bucharest ATP250

We are still awaiting the completion of the full draw as the final round of qualifying matches will be completed today. I personally think it is wise to wait until qualifying matches are completed so you know who the qualifiers are and who they will face in the main draw. Also It's not uncommon for higher ranked players to be knocked out in the first round by talented qualifiers who have momentum, in particular at this level.

This is a fairly low grade event, which has been diluted further with the withdrawal of Melzer. Monte Carlo semi-finalist and two-time tournament winner (07 & 08) Simon is the top-seed while defending Champion Mayer is seeded 2. 

On paper there is no reason why Simon can't win his third title, but the top-seeds have a terrible record here over the last decade never winning the title, and with an energy sapping tournament last week, i have a feeling Simon will fall short at the latter stages against a more fresh/sharper opponent.

In the top half of the draw along with Simon Troicki, Dodig or possibly Volandri could go well as they are all capable clay courters and should do well as the potential opposition is a level below their ability. However, their form has not been that good of late and with Dodig facing a qualifier first round, and Troicki playing possibly Volandri in the second round it’s difficult to back any of them with any real confidence.

If pushed i would probably side with Dodig at over 20.0 as he's experienced, has beaten Troicki on clay before and showed signs of some good form nearly beating Verdasco last week.

The bottom half of the draw is a bit of a lottery with none of the players in any real form. Defending champion Mayer is capable of reaching the final again, but his form this year has been average mainly due to struggling with injury problems at the start of the year.  

Baghdatis is a talented player, but clay is not his best surface and he has not played for nearly a month so it would be a surprise if he made the latter stage or final this week.

Italians Starace and Seppi are seasoned clay courters who usually find some form at this time of year and are capable of making the latter stages of tournaments at this level. Starace has beaten Mayer on clay before and came through his first round match in impressive fashion against the dangerous Chardy 6-3 6-0. If he continues that level of form this week he could make the semi-finals if Mayer is not at his best

Seppi is usually consistent at this level and has a winning record against Fognini who he is drawn to meet in the quarter finals should they both progress. Neither has been in the best of form this year, but Seppi is the more experienced and consistent player so i think he has the best chance of making it to the semi-finals/finals of the two.

While Mayer is out of form he is defending his title and it would be a surprise if he did not go down without a fight. As a result i think it’s best to avoid his section and side with Seppi at around 8.0 as if he makes the semi-finals there will be an opportunity to trade out for a profit.