Green_Up

Assement and run down of today's advice with results.

Apologies for a very poor weekend and it's not the start i'd hoped for Green_Up. It is honestly the worst weekend i've had for some time and i just hope next week brings better fortune.


If you assess the research and stats that back up my trades you can see i'm not just guessing, however i know this is no excuse and it's a case of selecting the correct trade for each match, which i clearly have not done well this weekend.


I have to try and be positive so onwards and upwards and i'm sure next weeks tennis and football will bring better fortunes.

Thank you for taking the time to read my blog and/or following me on Twitter.  

Morning all,

I'm getting under action today with a game in La Liga where i think i have found an edge for trading and guaranteeing a profit.

I may also have tennis advice that will be published via the Blog and Twitter no later than 11am.

4.30pm Update

Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Hoffenheim - 4.30pm
Lay 0-0 HT score after 10mins if 0-0 (LOST -1)

There has been a 1st half goal in 80% of Frieburgs home games this season.
There has been a 1st half goal in 90% of Frieburg last 10 homes games vs middle third sides.

There has been a 1st half goal in 93% of Hoffenhiems away games this season.
There has been a 1st half goal in 90% of Hoffenhiems last 10 homes away games vs bottom-6 sides

La Liga 

2pm Update
Real Betis vs. Osasuna - 3pm

Back U2.5 goals at 2.0 - Lay at 1.2 for equal profit or if 0-0 at HT (WON +1.0)

Stop loss - Lay O2.5 goals at 4.0 OR if goal before 10mins at price

Back CS 0-0 at 13.0 (hedge at 30mins for equal profit if 0-0) (Layed at 6.5 2 x stk - break even 0 profit)

Back CS 1-1 at 8.4 (to be confirmed In Play via Twitter) (Break even - 0 profit)

Expecting a tight game here and 1st half, which could be a draw. Both teams’ not prolific scorers in particular Osasuna away from home. Betis are missing top-scorer Castro Martin, which could negate their scoring potential.

Betis have drawn 1st half in 5 of last 6 vs. top-6 sides and have only scored 3 goals before HT in last 10 away games vs. top-6 sides (excluding Barcelona & Real Madrid).

Osasuna don't score many before HT either and have only scored 3 goals before HT in last 10 away games vs. bottom half sides.

Expecting no > than 2 goals in this match with good probability of 1-1. 0-0 also looks good from trading perspective, with both teams record of scoring before HT in particular against similar opposition.

Real Betis had two 1-1 and two 2-1 score lines in last 4 matches vs. top-6 opposition this season (excluding Barcelona and Real Madrid)

Osasuna had 4 1-1 score lines all vs. bottom half sides this season including 2 of last 3

The sides last met in 08/09 season, which was 0-0 draw and Betis not won against Osasuna in last 3 corresponding fixtures.

Espanyol vs. Valencia - 11am

Back Valencia at 2.68 - Lay for equal profit at price if score 1st (LOST -1)
Stop loss - Lay Valencia at 5.4 (not if concede 1st)


Back Correct Score 1-1 at 7.6 & 1-2 at 11.5 (look to hedge a profit at 1-1 or 0-2 etc) (LOST -2)


Valencia have scored the opening goal in 75% of their matches this season and Espanyol have conceded first in 8 of 10 home matches against top-6 sides.

Valencia scored a goal in 81% of their away matches.

Espanyol have lost 3 of their 6 home games this season vs top-6 sides 1-2 and drew one 1-1.

Espanyol scored a goal in 81% of their home matches.

I may have further advice for today's football depending on the above result. If i do it will be published one hour before K.O. and advised via Twitter.

Twitter In Play Advice 

Lay 3-0 Correct Score at 2.4 (WON +1.5)

Malaga vs Sociedad
Lay 1-1 Correct Score at 3.0 (LOST -1)

Spurs vs Chelsea
Lay Cheslea at 1.44 (LOST -1)
Stop loss back Chelsea at 1.22 (Chelsea scored next)


Tennis

Barcelona WTA

Cibulkova vs. Errani - 12pm

Back Errani at 2.02 - Lay for equal profit if wins 1st set (WON +0.79)

Stop loss - Lay Errani at 4.0 (not if loses 1st set)

Errani is the more natural clay court player and has scored more wins on the surface over the last 12 months. While she has a losing record against Cibulkova, her 2 wins did come on clay and a slow hard court. She is a much improved player than this time 12 months ago and has already won a title on the surface this year at Acapulco, so is clearly in good form. 

Cibulkova struggled in her 2nd and 3rd matches this week before getting her act together. Her win against Cirstea 6-1 6-1 in the semi-final looks impressive, but watching the match Cirstea really did gift it to Cibulkova, as she could hardly get her 1st serve in and made a high number of errors.

Errani is far more solid player than Cirstea, has a good record at this tournament reaching the semis last year and has not dropped a set this week against some decent players like Goerges and Suarez Navarro.

I'll go for the natural clay courter Errani who has better form on the surface over last 12 months to fight and win in 3 sets.

I may also have advice for the Casablanca final, which gets under way around 3.30pm, between Ramos and Andujar. I'd like to watch both players first and trade In Play, so i will provide any advice via Twitter if i see an edge. 

This should be a great match between too closely matched compatriots and competitors and i expect 2 or 3 close sets. Its difficult to separate the two as Andujar leads the h2h and is the defending champion, but Ramos has the better surface form this year. The h2h is telling and Ramos is a vastly improved player, however i think Andujar will raise his game as the defending champion and should win.

The same applies to the final at Copenhagen, which gets underway at 2pm, between Wozniacki and Kerber. I expect a close match here and Wozniacki will most likely win, but i think Kerber is a better player than when they last met at this tournament in 2011 (Wozniacki won 7-6 6-3). I think Wozniacki is too short at around 1.45 and may trade higher in running, but i want to watch how both players start so will provide any advice In Play via Twitter.

In Play advice via Twitter

Copenhagen
Wozniacki vs Kerber

Back Wozniacki at 1.9 (LOST -0.5)
Stop loss lay at 3.8

Houston
Monaco vs Isner

Lay Monaco at 1.35 - Back at price (1.85) if loses 2nd set (WON +0.77)
Stop loss back at 1.17
 
Good luck!