Assement and run down of today's advice with results.
Apologies for a very poor weekend and it's not the start i'd hoped for Green_Up. It is honestly the worst weekend i've had for some time and i just hope next week brings better fortune.
If you assess the research and stats that back up my trades you can see i'm not just guessing, however i know this is no excuse and it's a case of selecting the correct trade for each match, which i clearly have not done well this weekend.
I have to try and be positive so onwards and upwards and i'm sure next weeks tennis and football will bring better fortunes.
Thank you for taking the time to read my blog and/or following me on Twitter.
Morning all,
Apologies for a very poor weekend and it's not the start i'd hoped for Green_Up. It is honestly the worst weekend i've had for some time and i just hope next week brings better fortune.
If you assess the research and stats that back up my trades you can see i'm not just guessing, however i know this is no excuse and it's a case of selecting the correct trade for each match, which i clearly have not done well this weekend.
I have to try and be positive so onwards and upwards and i'm sure next weeks tennis and football will bring better fortunes.
Thank you for taking the time to read my blog and/or following me on Twitter.
Morning all,
I'm getting under action today with
a game in La Liga where i think i have found an edge for trading and guaranteeing
a profit.
I may also have tennis advice that
will be published via the Blog and Twitter no later than 11am.
4.30pm Update
Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Hoffenheim - 4.30pm
Lay 0-0 HT score after 10mins if 0-0 (LOST -1)
There has been a 1st half goal in 80% of Frieburgs home games this season.
There has been a 1st half goal in 90% of Frieburg last 10 homes games vs middle third sides.
There has been a 1st half goal in 93% of Hoffenhiems away games this season.
There has been a 1st half goal in 90% of Hoffenhiems last 10 homes away games vs bottom-6 sides
4.30pm Update
Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Hoffenheim - 4.30pm
Lay 0-0 HT score after 10mins if 0-0 (LOST -1)
There has been a 1st half goal in 80% of Frieburgs home games this season.
There has been a 1st half goal in 90% of Frieburg last 10 homes games vs middle third sides.
There has been a 1st half goal in 93% of Hoffenhiems away games this season.
There has been a 1st half goal in 90% of Hoffenhiems last 10 homes away games vs bottom-6 sides
La Liga
2pm Update
Real Betis vs. Osasuna - 3pm
Back U2.5 goals at 2.0 - Lay at
1.2 for equal profit or if 0-0 at HT (WON +1.0)
Stop loss - Lay O2.5 goals at
4.0 OR if goal before 10mins at price
Back CS 0-0 at 13.0 (hedge at
30mins for equal profit if 0-0) (Layed at 6.5 2 x stk - break even 0 profit)
Back CS 1-1 at 8.4 (to be
confirmed In Play via Twitter) (Break even - 0 profit)
Expecting a tight game here and 1st half, which could be a draw. Both teams’
not prolific scorers in particular Osasuna away from home. Betis are missing
top-scorer Castro Martin, which could negate their scoring potential.
Betis have drawn 1st half in 5 of last 6 vs. top-6 sides and have only
scored 3 goals before HT in last 10 away games vs. top-6 sides (excluding
Barcelona & Real Madrid).
Osasuna don't score many before HT either and have only scored 3 goals
before HT in last 10 away games vs. bottom half sides.
Expecting no > than 2 goals in this match with good probability of
1-1. 0-0 also looks good from trading perspective, with both teams record of
scoring before HT in particular against similar opposition.
Real Betis had two 1-1 and two 2-1 score lines in last 4 matches vs.
top-6 opposition this season (excluding Barcelona and Real Madrid)
Osasuna had 4 1-1 score lines all vs. bottom half sides this season
including 2 of last 3
The sides last met in 08/09 season, which was 0-0 draw and Betis not
won against Osasuna in last 3 corresponding fixtures.
Espanyol vs. Valencia - 11am
Back Valencia at 2.68 - Lay for equal profit at price if score 1st (LOST -1)
Stop loss - Lay Valencia at 5.4 (not if concede 1st)
Back Correct Score 1-1 at 7.6 & 1-2 at 11.5 (look to hedge a profit at 1-1 or 0-2 etc) (LOST -2)
Valencia have scored the opening goal in 75% of their matches this season and Espanyol have conceded first in 8 of 10 home matches against top-6 sides.
Valencia scored a goal in 81% of
their away matches.
Espanyol have lost 3 of their 6 home games this season vs top-6 sides 1-2 and drew one 1-1.
Espanyol have lost 3 of their 6 home games this season vs top-6 sides 1-2 and drew one 1-1.
Espanyol scored a goal in 81% of
their home matches.
I may have further advice for
today's football depending on the above result. If i do it will be published
one hour before K.O. and advised via Twitter.
Twitter In Play Advice
Errani is far more solid player than Cirstea, has a good record at this tournament reaching the semis last year and has not dropped a set this week against some decent players like Goerges and Suarez Navarro.
I'll go for the natural clay courter Errani who has better form on the surface over last 12 months to fight and win in 3 sets.
In Play advice via Twitter
Copenhagen
Wozniacki vs Kerber
Back Wozniacki at 1.9 (LOST -0.5)
Stop loss lay at 3.8
Houston
Monaco vs Isner
Lay Monaco at 1.35 - Back at price (1.85) if loses 2nd set (WON +0.77)
Stop loss back at 1.17
Good luck!
Twitter In Play Advice
Lay 3-0 Correct Score at 2.4 (WON +1.5)
Malaga vs Sociedad
Lay 1-1 Correct Score at 3.0 (LOST -1)
Spurs vs Chelsea
Lay Cheslea at 1.44 (LOST -1)
Stop loss back Chelsea at 1.22 (Chelsea scored next)
Tennis
Malaga vs Sociedad
Lay 1-1 Correct Score at 3.0 (LOST -1)
Spurs vs Chelsea
Lay Cheslea at 1.44 (LOST -1)
Stop loss back Chelsea at 1.22 (Chelsea scored next)
Tennis
Barcelona
WTA
Cibulkova
vs. Errani - 12pm
Back
Errani at 2.02 - Lay for equal profit if wins 1st set (WON +0.79)
Stop loss
- Lay Errani at 4.0 (not if loses 1st set)
Errani is
the more natural clay court player and has scored more wins on the surface over
the last 12 months. While she has a losing record against Cibulkova, her 2 wins
did come on clay and a slow hard court. She is a much improved player than this
time 12 months ago and has already won a title on the surface this year at
Acapulco, so is clearly in good form.
Cibulkova
struggled in her 2nd and 3rd matches this week before getting her act together.
Her win against Cirstea 6-1 6-1 in the semi-final looks impressive, but
watching the match Cirstea really did gift it to Cibulkova, as she could hardly
get her 1st serve in and made a high number of errors.
Errani is far more solid player than Cirstea, has a good record at this tournament reaching the semis last year and has not dropped a set this week against some decent players like Goerges and Suarez Navarro.
I'll go for the natural clay courter Errani who has better form on the surface over last 12 months to fight and win in 3 sets.
I may
also have advice for the Casablanca final, which gets under way around 3.30pm, between Ramos and Andujar. I'd like to watch both players first and trade In Play, so i will provide any advice via Twitter if i see an edge.
This should be a great match between too closely matched compatriots and competitors and i expect 2 or 3 close sets. Its difficult to separate the two as Andujar leads the h2h and is the defending champion, but Ramos has the better surface form this year. The h2h is telling and Ramos is a vastly improved player, however i think Andujar will raise his game as the defending champion and should win.
This should be a great match between too closely matched compatriots and competitors and i expect 2 or 3 close sets. Its difficult to separate the two as Andujar leads the h2h and is the defending champion, but Ramos has the better surface form this year. The h2h is telling and Ramos is a vastly improved player, however i think Andujar will raise his game as the defending champion and should win.
The same
applies to the final at Copenhagen, which gets underway at 2pm, between Wozniacki and Kerber. I expect a
close match here and Wozniacki will most likely win, but i think Kerber is a
better player than when they last met at this tournament in 2011 (Wozniacki won
7-6 6-3). I think Wozniacki is too short at around 1.45 and may trade higher in
running, but i want to watch how both players start so will provide any advice
In Play via Twitter.
In Play advice via Twitter
Copenhagen
Wozniacki vs Kerber
Back Wozniacki at 1.9 (LOST -0.5)
Stop loss lay at 3.8
Houston
Monaco vs Isner
Lay Monaco at 1.35 - Back at price (1.85) if loses 2nd set (WON +0.77)
Stop loss back at 1.17
Good luck!
Chris,
ReplyDeleteCould you please advise what stop loss is to be if Espanyol scores first or if Cibulkova wins first set?
Many thanks.
Hi David,
ReplyDeleteThank you for your enquiry.
If things go badly wrong like Cibulkova match yesterday and Valencia match today its difficult to manage your position re my advice i understand.
All i can advise is either taking a stop loss earlier than my advice if you are not comfortable e.g. after Cirstea lost 1st set 6-1 or when Espanyol scored 1st, as if you stay in i understand you are really stuck.
If this occurs i do look for In Play opportunities to minimise the loss throughout the day which i advise via Twitter.
For example i may try and lay the CS for the Espanyol match around 70mins as the stats suggest a good probability of a goal after this time.
If not their are other matches i have researched for today where i will look to minimise the Espanyol loss or hopefully return a profit.
I do get matches/games where things just go totally wrong sometimes and i seem to be having one of them times this weekend. hOWEVER, More often than not i am usually right or pretty close with my advice and a profit or a % loss can be taken.
I have a results spreadsheet for this year that i can email you with selections from a website i used to write for and advise via Twitter. This will let you see my form and approach so you can decide if its suitable for you?
I hope this helps and i apologies for a poor start and weekend.
Regards
Chris